QCP’s Q3 2026 Digital Assets Market Outlook finds Bitcoin defended its support zone during geopolitical shocks, but it did not act as a hedge.
According to the QCP Q3 2026 Digital Assets Market Outlook, Bitcoin held its broad support zone through the second quarter of 2026 despite the US–Iran conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sticky inflation, and a global repricing of rates.
The report argues the structural case for digital assets remains intact, but that holding a support level is not the same as leading, and Bitcoin did not behave like a haven when the crisis arrived.
The clearest evidence that liquidity has not rebuilt is on-chain. Stablecoin supply stood at US$315 billion as of 19 June 2026, flat on the quarter, while Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw US$4.4 billion of outflows over a 13-day streak from mid-May to early June. Bitcoin spot traded at US$62,769 on 19 June, against a second-quarter range of US$59,109 to US$82,792.
The report also points to a shift in corporate treasury behaviour from accumulation to discipline: in late May, Strategy sold 32 bitcoin, an immaterial 0.004% of its roughly 846,842-bitcoin reserve, to fund preferred-stock obligations, before resuming purchases within weeks at nearly 100 times the volume sold. Strategy accounts for around two-thirds of the 1.26 million bitcoin held by public companies, and the report says even a symbolic sale carried weight beyond its size.
QCP’s base case has Bitcoin range-bound between US$60,000 and US$75,000 through the third quarter, with a decisive reclaim of US$72,000 to US$75,000 needed to reopen US$80,000 to US$82,000, and a sustained break below US$58,000 marking the bear case. The report names sustained ETF creations, rising stablecoin supply, and lower real yields as the three signals it is watching for a change in trend.
Yuan Rong Tan, Head of ALM at QCP, said: “Q3 is not a rejection of the structural thesis. It is a test of whether that thesis can carry the market without a fresh liquidity impulse. The signals we are watching are the dull ones — ETF flows, stablecoin supply and real yields — and until they turn together, we would hold the core and skip the leverage.”
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