Tiago Lacerda, Market Analyst at Axi, examines how retail traders are diversifying into commodities and real assets, raising questions about market infrastructure readiness.
This summer’s World Cup arrived with the field widened to 48 teams, and with it came names few expected to see. Cape Verde and Curaçao, two of the smallest nations ever to qualify, took their place alongside the traditional giants. The monopoly of the usual contenders has loosened, and the stage is more crowded and more interesting than it has been in years.
Something similar is unfolding in the financial markets. After a decade in which a small cluster of technology names did much of the heavy lifting in portfolios, a growing number of retail traders are asking whether any single sector should be left to carry the whole team. Call it the great rotation.
The World Cup itself has a measurable effect on the markets that host and watch it. Academic research across 39 national markets shows that trading volume fell during knockout matches, with S&P 500 volume down more than 18 percent and Germany’s DAX down 33 percent during the 2014 tournament. Thinner order books during major matches mean markets can become more sensitive to large trades or surprise headlines.
The behavioural shift in portfolios is visible in the flows. US equity funds shed 34 billion dollars in January 2026, while natural-resources funds drew a record 7.5 billion dollars. Broad commodity ETFs have now attracted inflows in eleven of the past twelve months.
Retail traders have moved the same way. Commodity options trading rose 18 percent year over year in 2026 as traders reached for new ways to position around volatility. The trading appetite is now for a broader playbook.
Gold has been the clearest expression of the mood. Total demand rose only modestly by volume, yet the value of quarterly demand hit a record 193 billion dollars, and physical bar and coin buying jumped 42 percent to its second-highest quarter on record as investors were drawn to gold’s momentum and its safe-haven appeal. Tellingly, the strength came from Asia and from physical metal, offsetting outflows from Western funds, a reminder that the rotation looks different depending on where a trader sits.
For traders who came to markets through digital assets, this rotation will feel familiar. The same qualities that made crypto compelling are drawing crypto-native traders into commodities, metals and energy, but the infrastructure built for crypto was not always designed for the speed and complexity that commodities and FX demand at scale.
Energy has been a louder and more complicated chapter. Brent crude surged above USD 100 on Middle East supply disruption fears before pulling back sharply toward USD 75 following this week’s ceasefire. This highlights how quickly headlines can move the markets. While tensions have eased, the EIA does not expect oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to fully normalise until early 2027, which means the volatility story is far from over. For traders, that mix of elevated prices and sharp volatility has kept energy among the most closely watched corners of the market.
None of this means technology has been benched. By May, technology funds had posted their largest monthly inflow since early 2024 as risk appetite returned. The shift underway is a steady broadening of how traders build a portfolio, with commodities, metals, energy and international exposure earning a place alongside the names that have led for years.
A more diversified book demands genuine multi-asset depth and consistent execution across markets that move fast and rarely in step with one another. The question is whether the infrastructure beneath these traders can carry a faster, wider and more volatile set of positions.
When you engage regularly with active traders as I do, you will see a pattern emerge. Most already run more than one platform, usually because no single provider gives them the full spread of assets they want, so they assemble a portfolio across several platforms. The great rotation, in other words, is happening across a system that was not designed for it. And the more experienced or active a trader is, the more likely they are to have a fragmented portfolio.
That fragmentation carries a cost. Juggling separate logins, balances and execution environments creates a lot of friction, and in fast markets, it can even become a genuine risk. These situations impact traders most in the conditions a rotation creates, such as high volatility, sharp moves and assets that traders know less well. And as research on tournament trading windows shows, even routine scheduled events like a World Cup knockout match can thin liquidity enough to amplify those risks significantly.
This is why I believe the hierarchy of what traders value is changing. When you move into gold on a safe-haven bid, or energy on a geopolitical shock, every second of downtime is capital risk. The competition on price and execution speed may have defined the last decade of trading, but trust is the new differentiator.
Moving into less familiar territory raises the stakes on that trust considerably, and nowhere is this more accurate than for traders in Latin America and Asia. The growth of AI-generated content, deepfake endorsements from figures who never gave them, and social media channels built to look like credible analysis have made the cost of a wrong platform decision higher than it has ever been.
A single fraudulent signal at the wrong moment, such as an entry during a sharp commodity move or a withdrawal blocked by a platform with no regulatory backing, can wipe out months of disciplined positioning. The problem is accelerating as AI tools have lowered the cost of producing convincing fake content to near zero, which means the volume of misinformation entering these markets will only grow.
The platforms that will earn loyalty in the great rotation are the ones that make their regulatory framework visible, their execution transparent, and their fraud protection active rather than theoretical. For a crypto-native trader moving into commodities or metals for the first time, beyond which assets it offers, the question to ask of any platform is what it does when things go wrong.
This is a global shift, and it is most visible in the fast-growing markets I follow closely, across Latin America, the Gulf and Southeast Asia, where new traders are entering at scale and testing the limits of available tools. When you view the macro picture and behaviour together, it is clear the defining move of 2026 is to pair a broader portfolio with infrastructure built to carry it: consistent reliability, access to different asset classes, governance traders can verify, and protection they can see.
The lesson of this World Cup is that the biggest stage no longer belongs to a handful of giants, and that the teams who go furthest are the ones with depth, discipline and a system that holds under pressure. Markets are learning the same thing. The traders who thrive in the great rotation will be the ones who build a broad squad and compete on infrastructure steady enough to rely on when the season turns.
Tiago Lacerda is a professional trader and Manager Account for Brazilian Clients at Axi. With a strong focus on discipline and a professional mindset, Tiago transforms beginners into traders prepared to navigate market volatility, while also offering mentorships, educational content, and strategic solutions for those seeking sustainable growth and long-term financial freedom.
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